Excess Mortality at Veterans Health Administration Facilities During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

IMPORTANCE: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in excess mortality among the general US population and at Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities. It is critical to understand the characteristics of facilities that experienced the highest and lowest pandemic-related mortality to inform future mitigation efforts. OBJECTIVE: To identify facility-level excess mortality during the pandemic and to correlate these estimates with facility characteristics and community-wide rates of COVID-19 burden. DESIGN: We used pre-pandemic data to estimate mortality risk prediction models using 5-fold cross-validation and Poisson quasi-likelihood regression. We then estimated excess mortality and observed versus expected (O/E) mortality ratios by the VHA facility from March to December 2020. We examined facility-level characteristics by excess mortality quartile. PARTICIPANTS: Overall, there were 11.4 million VHA enrollees during 2016 and 2020. MAIN MEASURES: Facility-level O/E mortality ratios and excess all-cause mortality. RESULT: VHA-enrolled veterans experienced 52,038 excess deaths from March to December 2020, equating to 16.8% excess mortality. Facility-specific rates ranged from -5.5% to +63.7%. Facilities in the lowest quartile for excess mortality experienced fewer COVID-19 deaths (0.7-1.51, P <0.001) and cases (52.0-63.0, P =0.002) per 1,000 population compared with the highest quartile. The highest quartile facilities had more hospital beds (276.7-187.6, P =0.024) and a higher percent change in the share of visits conducted via telehealth from 2019 to 2020 (183%-133%, P <0.008). CONCLUSIONS: There was a large variation in mortality across VHA facilities during the pandemic, which was only partially explained by the local COVID-19 burden. Our work provides a framework for large health care systems to identify changes in facility-level mortality during a public health emergency.

Racial and ethnic disparities in excess mortality among U.S. veterans during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately affected racial and ethnic minorities among the general population in the United States; however, little is known regarding its impact on U.S. military Veterans. In this study, our objectives were to identify the extent to which Veterans experienced increased all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, stratified by race and ethnicity. DATA SOURCES: Administrative data from the Veterans Health Administration's Corporate Data Warehouse. STUDY DESIGN: We use pre-pandemic data to estimate mortality risk models using five-fold cross-validation and quasi-Poisson regression. Models were stratified by a combined race-ethnicity variable and included controls for major comorbidities, demographic characteristics, and county fixed effects. DATA COLLECTION: We queried data for all Veterans residing in the 50 states plus Washington D.C. during 2016-2020. Veterans were excluded from analyses if they were missing county of residence or race-ethnicity data. Data were then aggregated to the county-year level and stratified by race-ethnicity. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Overall, Veterans' mortality rates were 16% above normal during March-December 2020 which equates to 42,348 excess deaths. However, there was substantial variation by racial and ethnic group. Non-Hispanic White Veterans experienced the smallest relative increase in mortality (17%, 95% CI 11%-24%), while Native American Veterans had the highest increase (40%, 95% CI 17%-73%). Black Veterans (32%, 95% CI 27%-39%) and Hispanic Veterans (26%, 95% CI 17%-36%) had somewhat lower excess mortality, although these changes were significantly higher compared to White Veterans. Disparities were smaller than in the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Minoritized Veterans experienced higher rates excess of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to White Veterans, though with smaller differences than the general population. This is likely due in part to the long-standing history of structural racism in the United States that has negatively affected the health of minoritized communities via several pathways including health care access, economic, and occupational inequities.

Likelihood of COVID-19 reinfection in an urban community cohort in Massachusetts.

Background: Understanding the association of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection with subsequent reinfection has public health relevance. Objective: To explore COVID-19 severity and SARS-CoV-2 infection and reinfection rates. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Boston, Massachusetts, during the first COVID-19 surge (01/01/2020-05/31/2020; Period-1) and after the first surge (06/01/2020-02/28/2021; Period-2); Period-2 included the second surge (11/01/2020-02/28/2021). Participants: Patients in an academic medical center and six community health centers who received a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 between 01/01/2020 and 05/31/2020 or SARS-CoV-2 testing between 01/01/2020 and 02/28/2021. Measurements: COVID-19 severity was compared between Period-1 and Period-2. Poisson regression models adjusted for demographic variables, medical comorbidities, and census tract were used to assess reinfection risk among patients with COVID-19 diagnoses or SARS-CoV-2 testing during Period-1 and additional SARS-CoV-2 testing during Period-2. Results: Among 142,047 individuals receiving SARS-CoV-2 testing or clinical diagnoses during the study period, 15.8% were infected. Among COVID-19 patients, 22.5% visited the emergency department, 13% were hospitalized, and 4% received critical care. Healthcare utilization was higher during Period-1 than Period-2 (22.9% vs. 18.9% emergency department use, 14.7% vs. 9.9% hospitalization, 5.5% vs. 2.5% critical care; p < 0.001). Reinfection was assessed among 8961 patients with a SARS-CoV-2 test or COVID-19 diagnosis in Period-1 who underwent additional testing in Period-2. A total of 2.7% (n = 65/2431) with SARS-CoV-2 in Period-1 tested positive in Period-2, compared with 12.6% (n = 821/6530) of those who initially tested negative (IRR of reinfection = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.15-0.25). Conclusions: Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection among this observational cohort was associated with an 81% lower reinfection rate.

County-Level Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Excess Mortality Among U.S. Veterans: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to impact the world at large, Veterans of the US Armed Forces are experiencing increases in both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 mortality. Veterans may be more susceptible to the pandemic than the general population due to their higher comorbidity burdens and older age, but no research has examined if trends in excess mortality differ between these groups. Additionally, individual-level data on demographics, comorbidities, and deaths are provided in near-real time for all enrolees of the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). These data provide a unique opportunity to identify excess mortality throughout 2020 at a subnational level, and to validate these estimates against local COVID-19 burden. METHODS: We queried VHA administrative data on demographics and comorbidities for 11.4 million enrolees during 2016-2020. Pre-pandemic data was used to develop and cross-validate eight mortality prediction models at the county-level including Poisson, Poisson quasi-likelihood, negative binomial, and generalized estimating equations. We then estimated county-level excess Veteran mortality during 2020 and correlated these estimates with local rates of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths. FINDINGS: All models demonstrated excellent agreement between observed and predicted mortality during 2016-2019; a Poisson quasi-likelihood with county fixed effects minimized median squared error with a calibration slope of 1.00. Veterans of the U.S. Armed Forces faced an excess mortality rate of 13% in 2020, which corresponds to 50,299 excess deaths. County-level estimates of excess mortality were correlated with both COVID-19 cases (R2=0.77) and deaths per 1,000 population (R2=0.59). INTERPRETATION: We developed sub-national estimates of excess mortality associated with the pandemic and shared our data as a resource for researchers and data journalists. Despite Veterans' greater likelihood of risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 illness, their excess mortality rate was slightly lower than the general population. Consistent access to health care and the rapid expansion of VHA telemedicine during the pandemic may explain this divergence. FUNDING: This work was supported by grants from the Department of Veterans Affairs Quality Enhancement Research Initiative [PEC 16-001]. Dr. Griffith's effort was supported in part by the Agency for Healthcare Research & Quality [K12 HS026395].